User:Akbugday/Climate change in iraq

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Climate Change in Iraq has led to environmental impacts such as increasing temperatures, decreasing precipitation, land degradation, and water scarcity. Iraq is vulnerable to numerous risks to human health, livelihoods, political stability, and the sustainable development of the nation. The combination of ecological factors, conflict, weak governance, and an impeded capacity to mitigate climate change, has made Iraq uniquely vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. Iraq ranks fifth most vulnerable country to Climate Change in the world. Climate change has negatively impacted Iraq's population through loss of livelihood, a decline in the agricultural sector, food insecurity, water scarcity, and displacement.

The water-related challenges are at the forefront of Iraq’s environmental problems. Models predict that precipitation will decrease by 9% and mean annual temperatures will increase by 2°C by 2050 (USAID). The flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide 98% of Iraq’s surface water, has decreased by 30-40% in the past 40 years. The water resources of these two rivers are also shared with upstream nations. Causing conflicts, mismanagement and decreasing water supplies due to due construction.

In 2019 Iraq contributed 0.5% to global carbon emissions. Iraq’s energy sector and fugitive emissions account for three-fourths of the nation's emissions (World Bank group). Specifically, Iraq’s oil and gas sectors produced 9% of global methane emissions in 2019, a portion of which is from gas flares. The waste, industrial, and agriculture sectors are the second greatest contributors to emissions in Iraq.

Iraq produced an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), which is a set of policies and goals for how Iraq can address climate change. Iraq wants to reduce emissions by 15% by 2035, with a specific focus on lowering their methane emissions. Iraq ratified the Paris Treaty and committed to specific actions to reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, which are coordinated by a newly established inter-ministerial national task force on methane emissions.

Impacts on the natural environment

Iraq is ecologically more vulnerable to climate change due to a variety of interconnected reasons. Iraq is in a dry region of the world and it can be divided into three areas: the arid deserts of the south, the semi-arid alluvial plains, and the mountainous northern region. (CITE) https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/iraq#:~:text=Iraq's%20economy%20is%20mainly%20driven,biodiversity%2C%20and%20the%20health%20sector. Along with its arid land, Iraq has faced political turmoil, poor management of scarce resources, and the degradation of key ecosystems. (CITE)

Geography of Iraq

Iraq physical map
Continent	Asia
Region	Middle East
Coordinates	33 00 N, 44 00 E
Area	Ranked 60
• Total	438,317 km2 (169,235 sq mi)
Coastline	58 km (36 mi)
Highest point	Cheekha Dar 3,611 m (11,847 ft)
Lowest point	Persian Gulf 0 m (0.0 ft)
Longest river	Euphrates
Largest lake	Lake Hammar

Temperature and weather changes

Heat Waves and the average temperature have been increasing rapidly in Iraq. The mean temperature of Iraq has increased at a rate of .7 degrees celsius per century. These rising global temperatures have intensified water scarcity and desertification in Iraq (USAID).

The normal weather conditions of Iraq consist of a wet and dry season , however, climate change intensifies these seasons which leads to extreme drought and flooding events. The southern and central regions of Iraq show display patterns of decreased precipitation (USAID).

The changes in temperature and precipitation have led to an increase in dust and sand storms throughout Iraq.

Desertification, or the degradation of biologically productive land into infertile desert, is increasing in Iraq. A study monitoring the spatial land patterns of Iraq found that from 1990 to 2014 the amount of desert area increased by 5 %. (Mahmood 2017). As of 2022, 39% of Iraq's land is affected by desertification.

Water Resources

The Tigris-Euphrates River System and its given watershed account for 98% of surface water in Iraq, integral to the diverse ecosystem. The total catchment area (the area in which rainfall flows into bodies of water) is estimated to have a size of 430,000 Square Kilometers (km²), about 46% of the whole country . Iraq's waterbodies and river basins are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of Climate Change in the 21st century. Through global warming, declining precipitation rates, altered distribution patterns, salinity, and evaporation , Iraq is facing acute water stress. With the decrease in precipitation rates, models have predicted that the available water will decrease while the demand for crop water increases . Studies have also found that increasing global temperatures are Iraq's most significant driver of water scarcity. The significant drops in annual rainfall will not only affect water levels and flow but will have detrimental impacts on agriculture and human health. According to studies, due to a combination of factors, water flow will decrease in Iraw by 25 to 50% .

Ecosystems

• Iraq's 2020-2021 rainfall season was the second driest in 40 years, according to the United Nations, causing the salinity of the wetlands to rise to dangerous levels. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/our-whole-life-depends-water-climate-change-pollution-dams-threaten-iraqs-marsh-2021-10-14/
• Marshes See FAO report https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/fao-renews-its-call-urgent-action-safeguard-iraqs-marshes-and-buffalo-producers-severe-climate-change-and-water-scarcity-enar "Dr Salah El Hajj Hassan, FAO Representative in Iraq, confirmed: "The severe water shortage, heat waves and drought in the marshes have put buffalo producers and the entire ecosystem at a very high risk, calling for an urgent short, medium and long-term actions to prevent further destruction and ensure a sustainable future for this Iraqi World Heritage site.”
  • The Mesopotamian Marshes in southern Iraq, an ecosystem important to animals and humans alike, has deteriorated due to climate change. After the draining of the marshes, the ecosystem is much more susceptible to impacts such as water shortages, heat waves, and drought. Sea level rise and water salinization combined with long dry periods have deteriorated the marshes. The Center for restoration of Iraqi Marshes and wetlands at the ministry for water resources estimates that 70% of the marshes are devoid of water.
• also "matter of pollution coming from upstream" in the marshes increasing vulnerability of the wetland ecosystem and livelihoods of residents https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/our-whole-life-depends-water-climate-change-pollution-dams-threaten-iraqs-marsh-2021-10-14/

• Desertification See https://www.icrc.org/en/document/iraq-expanding-deserts-searing-temperatures-and-dying-land-climate-crises-deepen-struggle

Impacts on people

Climate change has led to numerous negative impacts on the people of Iraq including health issues, displacement from land, economic struggles, and resource scarcity. Rising temperatures, lowered precipitation, land degradation, and drought have negatively impacted agriculture leading to lower yields, and loss of arable land. These impacts cause agriculture-reliant rural populations to move to urban centers because of decreasing natural resources and economic opportunities. The food security of Iraq is also threatened by these agricultural impacts. Water scarcity and water pollution have led to waterborne illnesses and improper means of sanitation.

Additionally, A history of conflict, underdeveloped infrastructure, and weak governance in Iraq has exasperated climate change’s negative impact on people and has impeded adaptation and mitigation efforts (Bergof Foundation).

Internally displaced people

Climate change both negatively impacts and contributes to Iraq's large population of internally displaced people. Research has found the strongest predictors for the risk of climate change-related displacement are: water-related issues, food security, lack of infrastructure and services, and reliance on land for their livelihood. (Inter. Org for migration)

Economic impacts

Iraq's economy is extremely dependent on oil, which makes the nation more at risk to market volatility. Iraq’s agricultural sector accounts for approximately 5% of the nation's GDP and is the source of livelihood for about 25% of the population (USAID). Iraq's largest food-producing industries, agriculture, livestock husbandry, and fishing, have all been negatively affected by the effects of climate change (Aid Gate Org). With reduced precipitation and scarce water, desertification, and soil degradation, both livelihoods and food security are put at risk.

The relationship between climate change and regional conflict dynamics in Iraq has negative consequences on livelihoods. The combination of weak governance, scarce natural resources, and conflict poses unique challenges to the livelihoods of the Iraqi people; for instance, resource scarcity that leads to in-community tension or weak governance leading to mismanagement of water (Bergof foundation).

Health impacts

According to UNICEF, as of xxx, 3 of 5 children do not have access to clean water (year, cite)

• Water bourne illness from poor water quality

Breathing problems from increased dust storms

Water Insecurity and Migration

(2018 Water Crisis) Urban water insecurity https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/understanding-pathway-water-insecurity-urban-migration-southern-iraq-march-2023

An increase in rural drought leading to increased urbanization

Displacement from pollution and desertification, particularly for people in agriculture

Köppen climate classification map for Iraq for 1980–2016

Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Iraq for 2071–2100

Historical and Political Factors

Iraq’s arid land is ecologically more likely to face negative impacts of climate change, however, a history of war, political instability, and mismanagement of natural resources are also responsible for intensifying the negative effects of climate change .

Saddam Hussein

In 1992 during the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein ordered for the draining of the Mesopotamian Marshes of southern Iraq to punish the Marsh Arabs for revolting during the 1991 Iraqi Uprising against Saddam Hussein's government. Over 90% of the marshes was lost during Husseins Rules which has intensified the effects of climate change.

Society and Culture

Activism

Due to the fragility of Iraq's government body, NGOs and Civil Society should play a huge role in fighting climate change in Iraq. In reality, climate activism is only just getting off the ground in recent years. During Saddam Husseins regime, activism and governmental accountability was completely stifled . Since then, in 2010 the government established the Civil Society Organization Law, a framework to register as a civil society organization . As of 2023, there are from 6,000 to 12,000 non-governmental organizations, 185 are environmental . Notable recent and current activism efforts include- Save Basra campaign against water pollution in 2018 , Nature Iraq, Save the Tigris, and the Tishereen Movement. in the 21st century, from Human Rights Watch reports, environmental activists have been abducted, detained and prosecuted .

Private Sector Efforts

Private Sector efforts are both internal and external. USAID, an United States governmental agency investing in foreign development, has put in 150 Million to improve water quality, access and handling. The United Nations, alongside the government of Iraq, the United States and international donors created the Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS) with over 1.4 billion dollars allocated for restoring essential services .

Controversies

Controversies surrounding climate change in Iraq include the 2018 Safe Basra protests in response to the ongoing water crisis and pollution. Three civilian protesters were killed and forty-seven were injured, according to the Human Rights Watch organization . Quoting this organization, the "interior ministry force used excessive and unnecessary force" in response to the climate protesters. Other controversies include the Marsh Arab Displacement (1970s to 2000s).

Arts and Media

Media plays a huge role in the dissemination of information throughout Iraq, expanding the conversation worldwide . Outlets such as Al-Jazeera English have published documentary films on the ongoing water crisis. As well, opportunities such as - peacebuidling series: Climate Change in Iraq - aims to engage with the youth.

Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation

With a complicated and controversial political climate tied in with the lack of voice given to civilians, mitigations and adaptation efforts are struggling to pick up steam. Many international organizations are developing mitigation approaches for localized and statewide use. Economic and political reform will in turn help developing strategies to fight climate change . With increasing oil prices, Iraqs wealth will grow and many are are pushing the Iraqi government to use this to invest in mitigation strategies through budget allocations. As well, increasing the regional dialogue on climate change has begun, in the largest cities such as Baghdad.

Mitigation tactics including reducing methane. Seen by many groups, scientists and activists as one of the most cost-effective and simplest ways to reduce climate change . As Iraq contributes heavily to methane emissions due to gas and oil production, the Iraqi government has aims to reduce the greenhouse gas emission by 15 percent by 2030 . This goal developed out of the Paris Agreement and joint collaboration with the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP).

Adaptation

Adaptation methods look to adjusting and preparing for the impacts of climate change. To increase climate resilience in Iraq many initiatives have been launched in the last decade. Among these is the National Adaptation Plan (NAP). A three-year initiative to bolster technological, institutional and financial capabilities in order to guarantee future adaptation strategies are incorporated into the countries development . Agriculture and climate resilience projects have become significant, with international funding and backing in projects working towards addressing the crisis facing farmers across Iraq . The Swedish Government has promised over 10 million to build climate resilient agriculture strategies .

Approaches

Need for New infrastructure

Education.

Policies and legislation

International cooperation