Talk:Opinion polling for the 2024 Austrian legislative election

Hypothetical polling

@Kahlores: when we include MFG we could also include HC in the main table Braganza (talk) 10:15, 11 December 2021 (UTC)

I concur. At first reading I thought HC was polled in prospect of a future party founding, when in fact, it has already been founded in December 2019. Why was it categorized as "hypothetical" in the first place? besides the first 5 polls from Oct-Dec 2019? In fact, the custom is that those 5 prospect polls should also be brought in the main table, given that the hypothesis came to fruition. Kahlores (talk) 00:35, 12 December 2021 (UTC)

I think Dec 2019 - Feb 2020 was seen as hypothetical as HC Strache's involvement and status as leader wasn't confirmed yet even though the party was clearly founded in support of Strache. Additionally, they only confirmed to run for the Viennese state election (the Viennese FPÖ branch was formerly led by Strache) and it was clear that the party wouldn't survive an electoral defeat in Strache's home state, so the participation in the 2024 national election was always not much more than a possibility. But strictly speaking, I guess only Oct-Dec 2019 polls are completely hypothetical. --Gbuvn (talk) 00:52, 12 December 2021 (UTC)

Thanks for these details. Because the party announced expanding nationwide, we can follow the custom here which is to bring scenario polls in the main table if that scenario eventually realizes. Kahlores (talk) 01:27, 12 December 2021 (UTC)

Graph

@BSMIsEditing: will you add BIER in the next update? Braganza (talk) 13:00, 9 December 2022 (UTC)

If there's enough polling, I will. BSMIsEditing (talk) 13:01, 9 December 2022 (UTC)

Please don't add BIER in the chart. It is only hypothetical, the party has not said that intends to run in 2024. Also, MFG has fallen into non-existence and has only managed to gain ballot access in 5 of 20 districts for the Jan. 29th state election in Lower Austria. From 2023 polling on, it will be listed under "others" in the poll table and you can forget MFG in the chart too. Only add "others". Thanks. --Glasperlenspieler (talk) — Preceding undated comment added 14:38, 1 January 2023 (UTC)

MFG should be listed as long as pollsters show them. They will probably phase out MFG polls eventually but we shouldn't make an arbitrary cut. Also, please note that I moved the Research Affairs polls to hypthetical because of their inclusion of BIER. It doesn't make sense to include the exact same poll twice, with BIER being added to Others in the main section and shown separately in the hypothetical section. It's different for polls which actually show two separate scenarios. --Gbuvn (talk) 15:40, 6 January 2023 (UTC)

Research Affairs ? They don't exist anymore. I think you mean Lazarsfeld. Yes, this can be moved below to hypothetical polling because Beer has not said anything about running in 2024. MFG will only get 0.2% to 0.5% of the vote in the upcoming 29 January election in Lower Austria. They are completely DEAD. Some polls will continue to include them, because pollsters are stupid. But as dead as they are, they should not be included in the list anymore with their own column (just as a footnote under "others". Glasperlenspieler (talk) 22:07, 6 January 2023 (UTC)

KPÖ

how do we want to handle them @Glasperlenspieler and Gbuvn: Braganza (talk) 19:52, 27 April 2023 (UTC)

@Braganza Personally I think the current system is becoming quite complex to understand, and the numerous 'Other' notes make it hard to understand what is really going on if someone were to be briefly looking at it. The best method, outside the occasional poll (such as the ones with Wallentin), would be to include the parties like HC, BIER and KPÖ in the main table, and separating the table more by timing if it is needed. Quinby (talk) 14:27, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

yeah i agree Braganza (talk) 14:58, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

and usually the scenario polls and the regular onces aren't that different Braganza (talk) 14:59, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

Yeah, looks good. The KPÖ Plus has clearly indicated after the Salzburg election last Sunday that they will run again for the 2024 (or early 2023 ?) Austrian national election. So, it is not hypothetical in their case, like Beer Party. I also added the results from Salzburg, so people don't wonder "Why is the KPÖ suddenly polling so high ?" and you have an explanation. This is done in UK poll tables too. Glasperlenspieler (talk) 15:21, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

yeah, we can also split the tables when a new party arose like we did in israel elections Braganza (talk) 15:30, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

here a good example what i mean Opinion polling for the 2021 Israeli legislative election Braganza (talk) 15:32, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

New poll (Hajek for ATV) has both the KPÖ and Bier Party in it. KPÖ has said they will run definitely in the election, Bier has been more uncertain. There's a chance they might run together under a joint leftist platform, like KPÖ Plus. I think this poll should be left included there, not moved to hypothetical. Glasperlenspieler (talk) 18:36, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

yeah i mean to rather leave the "hypothetical" polls out and start new tables when a new party appeared/disappeared Braganza (talk) 19:18, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

so 29 Sep 2019–25 Oct 2019 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne)

25 Oct 2019–6 Aug 2020 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne, HC)

6 Aug 2020–30 Sep 2021 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne)

30 Sep 2021–12 Oct 2022 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne, MFG)

12 Oct 2022–5 Jan 2023 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne, MFG, BIER)

5 Jan 2023–26 Apr 2023 (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne)

26 Apr 2023–today (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, NEOS, Grüne, KPÖ)

this would make it easier to edit the tables too Braganza (talk) 19:25, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

@Braganza seconded Quinby (talk) 01:16, 29 April 2023 (UTC)

i finished my draft @Glasperlenspieler: User:Braganza/SandboxAustria Braganza (talk) 06:50, 29 April 2023 (UTC)

looks good to me. Grenzlinie (talk) 17:45, 29 April 2023 (UTC)

i'll replace it with my draft Braganza (talk) 14:50, 30 April 2023 (UTC)

I think it is good as it is right now. Maybe you can introduce a column for the Beer Party too, but I think most pollsters don't ask for the Beer Party until before the election when they say they run. Also, I think the KPÖ "boner" right now will deflate again in the next months, because A) pollsters don't include them anymore and B) the KPÖ results were just tested right now by pollsters to measure their potential for the federal election. Also, KPÖ might run together with the Beer Party and other left lists next year. We need to wait and see what happens. Glasperlenspieler (talk) 14:56, 5 May 2023 (UTC)

Fieldwork date for Market-Lazarsfeld

The fieldwork dates for Market-Lazarsfeld polls are all over the place here. The problem is that the publisher (oe24.at) isn't consistent with how they present the dates either. The point is that the fieldwork is usually conducted over 3-5 days, but the published polls are always rolling averages over two batches of fieldwork. Not sure what the best way is to present that fact, but currently it's a mess. Gbuvn (talk) 10:10, 8 June 2023 (UTC)

Market-Lazarsfeld polls for oe24.at are cheap-as-f##k polls without much credibility and were often way off compared to election results. They are conducted for a controversial tabloid paper and should largely be ignored (oe24.at previously employed Research Affairs, which faked their numbers in the Sebastian Kurz corruption affair). Glasperlenspieler (talk) 03:44, 13 June 2023 (UTC)

I am well aware of that. Nevertheless, as long as these polls are listed here, the fieldwork dates should be corrected. Gbuvn (talk) 09:44, 13 June 2023 (UTC)

I know this discussion is old, and i'm also a new contributor, but maybe we could agree on how to handle the weekly(!) polls from Market-Lazarsfeld/oe24.

The reasons are already here described, that they are not "trustworthy" and only do their polling online.

My other concern is, because they are flooding the statistics so much with their polls, they deform the general polling lines. If you compare the german site, where the poll is not added every week, the graphical summary looks very different. If you look here you can see the difference in "online/not online" polling.

And as Gbuvn and Glasperlenspieler said, they are really not reliable.

So maybe the oe24 poll should only be added about once (or twice) a month (since thats the time frame other serious firms publish it)? Alubiana2000 (talk) 22:04, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

Move to Opinion polling for the 2024 Austrian legislative election

I tried to move this page from Opinion polling for the next Austrian legislative election to Opinion polling for the 2024 Austrian legislative election, but it's not possible because it says the "page already exists" !?!? Can anyone move it ? An election in 2023 is no longer possible for calendar reasons (an election in Austria must be called 3-4 months before election day.) Thanks. Glasperlenspieler (talk) 10:49, 11 November 2023 (UTC)

Line on KPÖ coming in second in local elections

The table serves as a tracker of opinion polls and not events in Austrian politics. Whilst major events might be justified to be listed here (e.g. the resignation of a chancellor), the fact that a candidate of a party came in second in a local election doesn't meet that threshold. @Alubiana2000 reverted my edit of his original comment without any reasoning. Please make sure to reach WP:consenus before adding contested content FantinoFalco (talk) 10:44, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

It is relevant, since it is a record high in Salzburg and it it will possibly affect future polls.

Why is the candidacy of the Beer party there? Even though they hold only a few district seats in Vienna, with actual no power of decision. Why was it mentioned that the MFG received 6% at the Upper Austria state election in 2021. Because both of these incidents affected the coming polls.

Austria is now in an election year (general elections will probably be held in September). Abnormalities like these or the city council elections in Innsbruck in April can boost or drop certain parties within a short period of time. Alubiana2000 (talk) 11:13, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

Per reasoning by Alubiana2000, notable events and anomalies with a potential to affect further poll standings (and subsequent election results) should be included in such tables, since they provide valuable supplementary information. Please refrain from removing it again unless a consensus is reached that it should be indeed removed, in order to not wage an edit war. Niokog (talk) 11:27, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

actually, they should not for exactly that reason. It is an election year and we would see an inflation of information not related to the topic of the article which is polling not political events in Austria .

Please refrain from adding this content without WP:Consenus. This is disruptive editing otherwise 95.90.243.224 (talk) 11:53, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

I don't think you read WP:Consensus correctly. You should not add content until we reach consensus. Please stop adding it FantinoFalco (talk) 12:06, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

There is no objection from adding it except from you and from the IP 95.90.243.224 who displays suspiciously similar pattern. As one admin already noticed: You both even used the talk page just a few minutes apart. Niokog (talk) 12:58, 20 March 2024 (UTC)

Just in case there's any need for a third party to outright support result (in written form) the inclusion of the local election result, I wholeheartedly am in favour of it, it's an unprecedented high result for the KPÖ, and has a lot of significance due to its possible sway on the results of the 2024 election. GlowstoneUnknown (talk) 06:29, 21 March 2024 (UTC)

I also support including these once-in-a-while references, such as state election outcomes or the KPÖ surge here in Salzburg, or the candidacy of BEER, to give English readers a context why polls are changing. I don't think Austrian voters are impacted by including these references, because Austrians are German-speakers and don't read this page. Glasperlenspieler (talk) 20:21, 21 March 2024 (UTC)

Thanks. The new polls show also (as expected) some changes.

Unfortunately on the german site, the contributors there, were not as forthcoming. They deleted my initial noteworthy events, how it is here or on other english election pages. :/ Alubiana2000 (talk) 08:38, 22 March 2024 (UTC)