Talk:Euro convergence criteria

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Latvia criteria fulfillment?[edit]

Latvia appears to fulfill the convergence criteria for January. Can they introduce the euro in 2014, or did I misunderstand the rules, and Latvia had to specify one specific month of the first half of the year beforehand, and they would be judged on the data of only that month? Ambi Valent (talk) 00:40, 2 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

In principle Yes - but not quiet yet. The rules are, that ECB only conduct their ordinary convergence checks with 2-year intervals. The last ordinary check was conducted in April 2012 (and published in May 2012), meaning the next ordinary check will be conducted April 2014 (and published May 2014). However, all member states with a euro derogation also have the right to submit an application to ECB anytime during the year where they believe to have met the criteria, where they ask ECB to conduct an extraordinary convergence check. It is the "Application month" that will determine and fix the time intervals for the convergence check.
As Latvia have now officially applied for an extraordinary convergence check here on 4 March 2013, this will now predetermine they will be "convergence checked" based on the rolling assesment year 1 March 2012 - 28 February 2013 for compliance with the HICP inflation and Interest rate criterion, while the ERM2 criterion compliance will be checked for the rolling two-year period 1 March 2011 - 28 February 2013, and finally compliance with the two fiscal criterion will depend on the final published fiscal data for the full calendar year 2012 (which Eurostat will release its data for on 22 April 2013). ECB will await Eurostat's release of 2012 Fiscal data before making a final conclusion on Latvia's compliance, so their afirmative report will only be published shortly after 22 April 2013. We however already know by now, that Latvia are headed to comply with all 5 criteria. The final fiscal data are by no means expected to change significantly from the currently "forecast figures", so realisticly it will only be the HICP inflation + Interest rate statistics (as of 28 Feb 2013) that potentially can threat Latvia not to achieve a full compliance for euro adoption. These stats will be published by Eurostat on respectively 12 March and 16 March, and we already know by now (based on preliminary data) that Latvia will manage to comply with both of these two criterion. We however right now have to wait for these last official data to be published, before we can write that: "Latvia have managed officially to comply with all convergence criteria for euro adoption on 1 Jan 2014". Danish Expert (talk) 11:45, 9 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Montenegro/Kosovo and Romania[edit]

Why are there Montenegro and Kosovo in the list? They both already adopted the Euro? (BTW: What happens when/before they enter the EU? Are they being forced to change their currencies? Otherwise every country who likes to join the EU could before change it to the Euro unilateral to avoid needing to fulfil the convergence criteria.)

Romania hasn't become member of the ERM II till now. That means it cannot be since two years in it on the January 1st 2015. Therefore it can't become member of the eurozone on 1.1.2015, right? --134.176.204.162 (talk) 17:42, 25 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

For now, only using an own currency is on the table. To keep using the euro would probably mean using the "alternate process", in which a state joins the eurozone but has no influence on the ECB (like microstates such as San Marino - however those microstates aren't officially part of the EU). To use the "alternate process" would almost certainly need an agreement in Parliament and Council beforehand. Long story short - it may happen, but nothing has been decided.
I think Romania's status is simply a case of making a declaration about the target date and then giving it up without officially revoking or superceding the declaration. Similarly Lithuania actually plans to introduce the euro on 1.1.2015 and could well fulfill the criteria - but they haven't officially declared it as the target date. Ambi Valent (talk) 22:53, 31 March 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Dr. Gabrisch's comment on this article[edit]

Dr. Gabrisch has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:


The descriptive part of the conference criteria, following the Maastricht criteria, is fine. However, the introduction might be a bit misleading in the ligher of latest developments. First, convergence criteria are understood to be a bit wider: institutional convergence matters also. Sweden, for example, meets the stability criteria, the inflation, and the interest rate criteria. However, the convergence reports of the EU commission note that central bank independence is not yet in line with the Maastricht criteria. Therefore, Sweden finds an argument to stay outside of the exchange rate mechanism. This should be noted in the article.

The author of this entry should consider the following passage in the 2012 convergence report, p. 42: "The Treaty in Article 140 also calls for an examination of other factors relevant to economic integration and convergence. These additional factors include financial and product market integration and the development of the balance of payments. The examination of the development of unit labour costs and other price indices, which is also prescribed by Article 140 of the Treaty, is covered in the chapter on price stability." (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2012/pdf/ee-2012-3_en.pdf) Further, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in its latest version as well as the Fiscal Compact are not substantial elements of the convergence criteria. The Fiscal Compact obliges all countries that have ratified it - Euro as well as non-euro member countries. The SGP - above all the sanctions - maybe applied only to euro area members.

And finally, the latest convergence reports of the EU commission made an attempt to include also real economy developments. The entry should be revised in the proposed way.


We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.

We believe Dr. Gabrisch has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:


  • Reference : Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2009. "A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 16:10, 11 July 2016 (UTC)[reply]

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