Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Rita

18L.Rita

96L.INVEST

My, my, tropics are heating up again. Looks like this one's gonna become Rita

Makes me think of the comment above:

 "I think the 2005 atlantic hurricane season will end up in Ophelia since dry air
 has been inhibitng any cyclone development. Dr. William Gray's forecast and
 prediction was not met after all...."

So much for the season ending on Ophelia. Well, technically it still could if these fellas die out and the oceans cool thirty degrees, but that isn't very likely. --tomf688^<TALK> 22:20, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm, we are also noticing this blob of cloud farther east of 95L. Invest... I guess it could become 97L.Invest soon... Hoping that it would become a Category 4 Stan.

Hoping? I hope you're just very short-sighted, and not realizing that major hurricanes kill things and destroy economies. --tomf688^<TALK> 22:44, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

Maybe hoping for a Category 4 fish-spinner? CrazyC83 01:16, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Then why didn't they say that? --Revolución (talk) 04:55, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

That "hoping" comment is just weird. No sane person would ever "hope" for a hurricane to become a Category 4. --Revolución (talk) 04:51, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Darn Navy Site hasn't been loading, but I'm guessing 96L is the stormy area near Puerto Rico and Hispanola. It is worth noting that the GFS appears to develop the blob behind T.D.17. The Great Zo 15:27, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm having the same problem, Zo. Thank God it's not just my computer. Geez it's annoying. I rely on that site heavily for sat photos.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:21, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Same problem here. They must be having server issues or something of that nature. --tomf688^<TALK> 18:30, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

I wonder if it has anything to do with the GOES-12 anomoly? Hmmm... -- RattleMan 18:33, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Rat, I noticed that too. The Goes visible isn't showing up. I can now get to the Navy site home page but no where else in the site. The images look out-dated anyway. They still have Ophelia off Cape Hatteras. Grrrr. |(

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:35, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

This looks bad, models are taking it into the Gulf and are in farely good agreement for a storm this young. --Holderca1 20:18, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

If the models doesn't show that it is going to develop into a major hurricane then we have nothing to worry about. Does it?

Why wounldn't we have anything to worry about if it wasn't a major hurricane? A strong Cat 2 can do quite a bit of damage. Last year Jeanne caused thousands of deaths while it was a tropical storm. No tropical system should be taken lightly. --Holderca1 21:55, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Katrina was underestimated when it hit Florida, and Ophelia again when it hit North Carolina. Both were Cat 1 and both caused damage in the billions (although from a human standpoint no one took chances with Ophelia). CrazyC83 01:55, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Great how fun (end sarcasm). The model consensus seems to be a track down the middle of the Straits of Florida and the central Gulf toward Texas.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:35, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Is there any invest for 97L? looks like the blob east of the would-be Philippe is going to develop too.

Not yet. However, this system (which I see becoming major Hurricane Rita), I think will be a MAJOR problem in the next week. Those on the Gulf Coast, look out!!! CrazyC83 02:05, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18

And Tropical Depression 18 forms! Good Lord... -- RattleMan 02:33, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm going to predict...this will become a major hurricane. Possibly on the scale of Katrina :( CrazyC83 02:40, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

The NHC is so excited that they're making mistakes: [1] [2] [3] -- RattleMan 02:54, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I see those screw-ups; we are having to update through bits and pieces of information and nothing new on Ophelia yet. According to the Canadian Hurricane Centre, Ophelia is now extratropical (not sure if true), however, we should continue to treat it as active until it passes completely out of Newfoundland. CrazyC83 02:56, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

The NHC has fixed all the mistakes. Now we have Ophelia back...So now we have Ophelia, Philippe, TD18, Kenneth, Lidia and Jova...Crazy... -- RattleMan 03:01, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I don't think I have ever seen this before...a hurricane watch declared when a storm was still an investigation area (since it couldn't be declared on the spot - someone inside the NHC made the call ahead of time and had real confidence in the models)? This is prime hurricane season for sure now! TD18/Rita is the most ominous of them for sure! CrazyC83 03:04, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Ophelia is extratropical. They just issued their last advisory. [4] --tomf688^<TALK> 03:07, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Five day track for TD18 [5] sends it into the Gulf. Another storm for Mexico perhaps. --tomf688^<TALK> 03:12, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm thinking so too or south Texas. Except I think Rita will be a monster. BTW Ophelia is extratropical but still definitely being felt strongly with heavy rain and tropical storm force winds; I'd continue monitoring it (and treating it as active) as long as the Canadian Hurricane Centre does (likely until it leaves Newfoundland). CrazyC83 03:18, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

hmm, just as i'm doing the write-up for philippe, since it was a given it was going to be upgraded at the 11pm advisory... i refresh the NHC page and tropical depression shows up. So - a flurry of activity at 11pm... ophelia's extratropical, philippe forms and so does 18. Definately seems plausible that Greek letters will be used. Boort 03:20, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Texas is the only Gulf state not to get hit my a major hurricane yet this year. Unlike last year where Florida got pummelled storm after storm, this season is spreading the misery around. --Holderca1 03:23, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Besides Philippe, the newly-formed TD18, and the possible-invest behind Philippe (cant be sure since those lazy Navy webmasters are asleep at the wheel), the tropics are pretty quiet... ;) --tomf688^<TALK> 03:26, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

From the 11 pm discussion:

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER.

Jesus Christ, that is the opposite of what I wanted to hear! Oh my God, we've had 18 depressions, 16 of which have recieved a name. We have had as many named storms this year as the Western Pacific has, and if 18 becomes Rita, we will top them. Are you aware of how much that sucks?! 3 hurricanes have struck or greatly affected the US. 2 tropical storms have also struck, one (Cindy) was a near-hurricane.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 05:08, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Some reports suggest that this would-be Rita will encounter dry air as it heads to the gulf... Perhaps we can erase the possibility that it will be like Katrina or a major hurricane.

You know, part of me want to start singing "Lovely Rita, Metermaid" (by the Beatles), but somehow I think that would guarantee she will turn north and all the Katrina survivors will hunt me down. Donovan Ravenhull 12:14, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rita

Oh my, Rita formed. There goes yet another record. How many systems are out there in the world now? -- RattleMan 21:00, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

6, 2 (Philippe, Rita) in the Atlanic, 4 (Jova, Kenneth, Lidia, Max) in the Central/East Pacific, the rest of the world is quiet. --Holderca1 21:26, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I think there is one in the West Pacific: Tropical Storm Vincente

Actually the final advisory was issued this morning on it. --Holderca1 23:09, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

The way things are going, we might need a Hurricane Rita article soon... CrazyC83 22:56, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Let's not jump the gun.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:13, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I know, I was just saying that we might need it in the future... CrazyC83 23:24, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

What the hell? Rita Tracking Models ...Okay...that's interesting... Lets roll a die to see where it goes! 1-2 says Mexico, 3-4 says Southwest FL, and 5-6 says Eastern Florida!!! Talk about a difference from the all-the-same tracks at 6pm! -- Bladeswin 01:58, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

There has been quite a bit of change, check these two out, I think this covers every computer model. [6][7] --Holderca1 02:17, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Very nice links! Thanks for posting them! As a resident of SW Fla, I always keep my eye on these...and when a change like that puts tracks over my house...I don't like it... -- Bladeswin 02:21, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

They are forecasting it to be a major hurricane in 72 hours. Not looking good, we could have our 4th major hurricane to make landfall this year in the Gulf. --Holderca1 03:09, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Incredibly, I still think they are below what I think will happen. I can see Rita easily making it to Category 4, and possibly even Category 5, over the next few days. (Philippe could also reach those heights, but as a fish-spinner - not so with Rita unfortunately!) CrazyC83 03:13, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

The NHC now has their 5 day track pointing Rita directly at Houston. God help us.

Wow, this is BAD! I was away over the weekend and now there is a major hurricane in the making. I fear, Texas needs to learn the lessons from Katrina real FAST!! Awolf002 16:01, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

No kidding! Especially considering the Keys and southernmost Florida could already be devastated...can anyone else sense a deep intensification phase coming up? I see Rita up to Category 3 or 4 before striking the Keys, and up to Category 5 in the Gulf! CrazyC83 17:52, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Don't forget Northeastern Mexico. --Revolución (talk) 18:08, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Mexico is looking less likely now. BTW I do think that Rita is a hurricane now; the NHC is just hesitant to upgrade it in an intermediate advisory (although I wouldn't be surprised if a special advisory comes out soon). CrazyC83 18:15, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

It hasn't even hit the Keys yet, how do we know where it's going to hit? Remember Ophelia's unpredictable movements? We need to worry about all possible areas that could be affected. --Revolución (talk) 18:23, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Well, Ophelia was moving with the speed of snail compared with this. Many loops and no steering. This is different! Everybody, and I mean EVERYBODY in the gulf region (Mexico to Florida) will look for that "right hook" to see who gets the bad news... Awolf002 19:48, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

I wonder how New Orleans feels about being in Rita's five-day cone... time for us all to start praying. --Mm35173 18:07, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Sorry if this sounds cynical, but praying won't help at all. --Revolución (talk) 18:59, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

I don't believe this is the proper forum for bringing up religious beliefs. --Holderca1 19:05, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Well, that's obvious. That's why I included the "sorry if this sounds cynical". I was merely pointing out that praying will not help because many people were praying for Katrina to not hit New Orleans and look at what happened. --Revolución (talk) 19:24, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm not gonna piss my pants until it's a Category 4 ready to make landfall in Galveston. You people have contracted severe cyclonophobia (fear of spinning, dizziness or hurricanes and yes I made that up). Rita isn't even a hurricane yet, is still over the Bahamas, no one is dead yet that we know of, nor any damage reports and there is already a main article called Hurricane Rita. Wikipedia is not a crystal ball. We don't need to start predicting doomsday like Nostradamus. Right now, Rita is forecast to strike the Keys as a 2, move into the Gulf and strike Freeport, Texas as a 120 mph Category 3. That said, that is a forecast. Notice the amount of dry air in the western Gulf [8]. Not very hurricane friendly. Now could we please stop panicing?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:45, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Some anonymous user created it, but I decided to build it up...I expect that it will be necessary within 12-24 hours anyway. It can be redirected for now but once necessary, it should be reverted to its last version (with updates). CrazyC83 23:52, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Nope, it's been brought back to life after Golbez redirected it by some user named Luxa. I still stand firm about the cyclonophobia.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:56, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Another point, has anyone noticed that the vast majority of Katrina refugees are in the projected path of Rita? If Rita does indeed hit where or near where the NHC says it will (not a given), it would seem that Nature's cruelty is calculated. She's (Nature) is like a murderer. She seems to have a mind of her own.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 01:55, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

As an environmentalist would say, it's not murder, it's self defense. --Holderca1 01:59, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

It is quite scary: below on the info betting on the strongest storm name: Bob Rulz predicted that Rita would arrive in mid-September, and it did... what is more scary is that what if his prediction that rita would be much more stronger than Katrina would come true?

That seems very possible, although it is much more likely to beat Katrina on sustained winds than on minimum pressure...anyway I saw this link and a flight showed 74 knot surface winds and 981 mb (a drop of 12) [9] - I am waiting for the 2 am update though, I expect it to go up to an 80 mph Category 1 hurricane. CrazyC83 05:36, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

Ok, 2 AM update is out, and the NHC hasn't upgraded it yet. What the hell? -- RattleMan 05:55, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

5am update's due out in a couple of minutes; it should have been upgraded by then. About that point above on New Orleans, the 11pm Strike Probabilities update puts New Orleans down with a 10% strike probability from Wednesday to Thursday. Will it come true though, that's the question. --NSLE | Talk 08:56, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

5am update lists Rita as a Tropical Storm, however the 5 day cone now has Rita as Tropical Storm deep inland into Texas after landfall. I'm thinking it could be a Cat 4 landing. EDIT: From the NHC's Public Advisory at 5am

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER 
TODAY.

-- NSLE | Talk 09:31, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

Infrared imagry seems to indicate an eye starting to form. The pressure is 988 millibars, most barely-hurricanes have a 987 millibar or 986 millibar pressure. A Hurricane Hunter is nearly there. We'll soon see if these are any indication that Rita is now a hurricane. See here: [10]. And look at the visable, [11], you can even see an eye there.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 13:12, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

Hurricane Rita

Finally, the official upgrade is coming! (as per 9:09 AM EDT update product) The Great Zo 13:41, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

I think that it has been a hurricane for about 12 hours (since 11:00 last night); just they never caught it...they didn't upgrade it simply because of the lack of an eyewall signature (but the winds had reached hurricane force in flight and translated to 75 mph onto the surface!) CrazyC83 14:30, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

It's already up to 85 mph...going into rapid intensification? Or had they missed the boat on this one? CrazyC83 15:19, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

The pressure drops (down to 980 - down 5 mb in 2 hours and down 10 mb since "overnight") and the thermal eyewall gradient (11 deg. C!) would suggest rapid intensification is possible. Frankly, it looks a lot right now like Katrina did while in the Cat 1 / Cat 2 phase before it organized totally over the Gulf. No, I don't think the end result will be quite the same. However, we're beginning a period of at least modest intensification. The Great Zo 16:16, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MH WINDS
AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Latest recon has it at 978 mb as well. The Great Zo 17:13, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

UPDATE - 2:00 special advisory is in. Here's the new forecast:

INITIAL      20/1800Z 23.9N  81.7W    85 KT
.12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.0N  83.1W    95 KT
.24HR VT     21/1200Z 24.3N  85.8W   105 KT
.36HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N  88.3W   105 KT
.48HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  90.5W   105 KT
.72HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  94.0W   105 KT
.96HR VT     24/1200Z 29.5N  96.4W    65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND

Alright, anyone else think that intensity forecast is completly out to lunch? The Great Zo 17:42, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

I do, I think it will quickly get to 100-105 knots, hover there for a day or so then in the central Gulf, over a hot pool of water, explode to 140-150 knots. CrazyC83 17:45, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm thinking it will go through an eyewall replacement cycle, soon. That would hold it down at a category 2 or 3 for a while. But after that, who knows... Awolf002 21:39, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

Each forecast gets worse. They are now forecasting a 125 kt (145 mph) storm. --Holderca1 03:11, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Indeed, check out this chilling line from the 11 pm discussion:

GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS

EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

Good God! That could suck. -- E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:23, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

I think Rita could put Katrina to shame when it's winds should perhaps reach at least 155 Knots... That would be too bad!

It is obviously clear that this is the hurricane that Dr. Gray assumed that would hit along the coast of US in Septemebr as a Major hurricane. What about in October? 15% chance I think goes to Tammy.

—The preceding unsigned comment was added by 210.213.151.174 (talk • contribs) 04:54, September 21, 2005 (UTC).

I wouldn't be surprised. However, an October landfalling storm would likely have to form in the Caribbean and make it through the Gulf, or pull a Hurricane Hazel and form near the Lesser Antilles and chug its way up to the eastern seaboard...landfalling Cape Verde storms are almost unheard-of at that point (most would quickly head north and miss everyone). CrazyC83 06:00, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

It is now a major hurricane at 115 km/hr

—The preceding unsigned comment was added by 210.213.151.174 (talk • contribs) 05:55, September 21, 2005 (UTC).

you mean 115 mph? 115 km/h would be a high-end tropical storm - note by CrazyC83 06:00, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Rita

Now a major. I suspect a Category 4 or 5 by tomorrow morning (it's 11:19 PM now) -- RattleMan 06:17, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm wondering why the planned recon plane isn't in the storm right now. Regardless, the big question is - will it stop intensifying to reorganize (eyewall cycle, etc) for a while tomorrow... or will it just keep going? I've seen both situations occur, and there's really no way of knowing for sure what will happen here... The 11:00 PM NHC discussion mentioned the prospects of Cat5 for the first time with Rita, and that's not a term they drop into a discussion lightly. The Great Zo 06:35, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

"THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT." This, from the 5am discussion on Rita, should answer that. It's looking bad now, "IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT." and "RITA SHOULD MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL..." Will we get a Cat 5 landfall, anyone wanting to bet? --NSLE | Talk 09:02, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Category 5 at landfall? I doubt it. There is no way a hurricane can sustain such intensity for over 48 hours, and once it passes the loop current, it isn't quite warm enough to get back to Category 5 and stay there. Still a good chance at a Category 4 landfall though... CrazyC83 15:11, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Brand new dropsonde (1:20 PM EDT) reports a pressure of 922 MB. The pressure was reported at 934 MB no more than an hour and a half ago. WTF??? The Great Zo 17:22, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Now at 920 mb and 150 mph winds (as I noted in an edit to the article).--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 18:34, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Bam, Category 5! --Holderca1 20:23, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Oh my gosh! I don't believe it. Category 5 now! [12] This is scary. Michelle T 20:43, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

From the vortex data message: 914 mb, 161 knots flight-level (168.6 mph winds if 90% multiplier). Amazing. AySz88^-^ 20:46, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST
INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. 

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888
MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN
1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

........ There are no words to describe this. None at all. Katrina flabbergasted me and left me speechless.... and Rita in the same season... this is incomprehensible. The Great Zo 21:51, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

So it appears we have got the intensity records for 2nd most intense and 3rd most intense hurricane in a season. Any further? crandles 22:11, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Gilbert is #1, Labor Day is #2, Allen is #3, Katrina is #4, and Rita is #5. The Great Zo 22:25, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Rita is 2nd most intense storm of 2005. In no other year is there a 2nd most intense storm that is more intense than Rita. Yes it is a silly set of records, but it does show strength in depth rather than one off intense storms. crandles 22:38, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Rita could still strengthen further, and join the "elusive" sub-900 club...this is crazy! Could you imagine if an October hurricane beats both Katrina and Rita??? (Anyone dare to predict one down below?) CrazyC83 22:33, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

Meanwhile,please stop deleting the "Current" sub-section on the Hurricane Rita entry in this article! That the hurricane has its own article (like other hurricanes none of which are active) does not mean people will go there for current data without an explicit pointer.The only other active hurricane has a "Current" sub-section and Rita should too.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 23:18, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

The current section for Rita is under it's main article. There is no reason to have to keep twice as much info up to date when it is not needed. The only other active hurricane does not have its own page. No one needs an explicit pointer because everyone goes to Hurricane Rita first anyway. --Holderca1 23:21, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

I don't go to the Hurricane Rita article...I think it should stay. I'm hoping it will stay. -- Bladeswin 00:10, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

......... There just aren't any more expletives left in the dictionary! The Great Zo 23:57, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

I can't believe this. I thought Katrina was big and bad... -- Bladeswin 00:10, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Holy shit. This hurricane is more intense than monsters like Katrina and Allen. Now we just have to wait for wind speeds to play catch-up.Fableheroesguild 00:17, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Yeah, holy shit is probably an understatement at this point. We are now at 898 millibars. 888 is the record. That's ten millibars. There is still hundreds of miles of warm water left. And keep in mind that Rita deepened 20 millibars in 3-6 hours. If this rate of deepening continues, Gilbert may be scared. I know I am.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:32, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Screw Gilbert, this could even reach down to Super Typhoon Tip...860 mb anyone? CrazyC83 00:40, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

No,no,no. No Gilbert-screwing. Let's be rational here. There is just not enough warm water for the hurricane to deepen that far. 885, possibly. 860, no frickin' way. Tip ain't scared. Period. However, that is good reverse-psychology there. Maybe it will help stop the rapid intensification. [smiles grimly]. First two-Cat 5 season in 44 years. God!

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 00:58, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

I'm wondering why it still has the same wind speed it had before it lost that last half inch of mercury.(I don't think I've ever seen a weather report in normal times give a barometric pressure that wasn't 29-something or 30-something...and the eye of Rita is not just below 27,it's about halfway to 26.Would having low pressure for its wind speed make weakening less likely?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 01:21, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Louis, to answer your question, Rita's wind speeds will become stronger soon due to the loss of pressure so it will not weakenat least for 12-24 hrs. Also Crazy C, Tip's lowest barometric pressure was 870, not 860, which I am 165% (little light humor in that percentage) sure Rita will not reach. I believe that it will reach 895 MB at lowest, but 885 MB is not out of the question. Fableheroesguild 01:38, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

If Rita could make landfall as a category 5 storm, it could put Katrina to shame

If it renders the ship channel unusable and floods downtown Houston it could cause more damage than Katrina but let's hope not,OK?...the pressure seems to have stopped falling rapidly (897 mb,so closer to 26 inches than 27) and the winds have barely matched Katrina.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 02:56, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Pressure now 897 [13]. Small fall but still unsettling. The pressure still seems to be going in the wrong direction.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:22, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

The winds are now forecast to reach 155 knots/180 mph before falling back...landfall could be a bit stronger than Katrina's,and the forecast track has shifted back a little toward Galveston-Houston.Still,a couple of days left before we know the fate.Could Rita wind up as spent as the similarly-massive Allen before reaching Texas?--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 03:33, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

4am CDT advisory is up. Rita's now at 175mph, and - perhaps worse yet - seems to be swinging more to the north, with a tropical storm warning in place for New Orleans. Only an eyewall replacement cycle just before landfall can save us now. KP

My, my, the KP I know? Nice to see you here. Anyhow, New Orleans will probably be caught in the eastern eyewall if Rita does turn north. Hopefully the levees will hold. -- NSLE | Talk 09:52, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

1pm CDT advisory up. No longer a Category 5 - but with winds of 150mph, minimum central pressure of 915mb and hurricane-force winds expanding 85 miles out from the centre, it's still a monster. Worse, they're talking about 'rainfall totals in excess of 25 inches' being possible, and with Rita having slowed to below 10mph that's a realistic possibility. | KP, 19:23, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

The 4 PM CDT advisory is up and it's continuing to get weaker...I expect that it will come ashore less powerfully than Katrina did,at this rate.The new Discussion says it's doing an eyewall replacement over a cold eddy,and when it gets to its last warm eddy before landfall there's a forecast of shear.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:15, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

Weaker, yes, but it's swinging more to the north than I'd like. Far too close to Katrina's path, causing damage in New Orleans - plus, will those near the Texas/Louisiana border be prepared for a direct hit? I really hope there's shear - there might have to be. | KP, 21:25, 22 September 2005 (UTC)

If it does hit West Louisiana,I wonder if this will be the occasion of the geologically inevitable shift in course of the lower Mississippi River to drain to the Gulf through what is now the Atchafalaya River.The Army Corps of Engineers can postpone Mother Nature for only so long.--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 21:38, 22 September 2005 (UTC)