Opinion polling for the 2024 Mexican general election
This is a list of public opinion polls relating to the 2024 Mexican general election. Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by the Americas Society – Council of the Americas, America Elige, Oraculus, and the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE).
Graphical Summary[edit]
Polling aggregations[edit]
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Lead | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC | ||||
Oraculus | through May 2024 | 6 May 2024 | 57% | 35% | 9% | 22% |
CEDE | through 23 April 2024 | 8 May 2024 | 59.6% | 32.3% | 8.1% | 27.3% |
Polls.mx | through 10 May 2024 | 11 May 2024 | 55% | 31% | 12% | 24% |
Bloomberg | through 5 May 2024 | 6 May 2024 | 59% | 28.7% | 12.3% | 30.3% |
Expansión Política | through 10 May 2024 | 11 May 2024 | 56.73% | 32.3% | 8.24% | 24.44% |
Average | 57.5% | 31.9% | 9.9% | 25.6% |
By candidates[edit]
Campaigning period[edit]
Polls taken during the official campaigning period (1 March to 29 May 2024).[1]
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | Others/
Undecided |
Lead | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC | |||||
4-5 May 2024 | TResearch[2] | 2,000 | 52.4% | 29% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 23.4% |
2-5 May 2024 | Áltica[3] | 2,500 | 50% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 10% |
30 April 2024 | C&E Mexico[4] | 600 | 55% | 34% | 11% | – | 21% |
29-30 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[5] | 1,800 | 48.9% | 40.4% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 8.5% |
28 April 2024 | Second presidential debate held. | ||||||
27-28 April 2024 | TResearch | 2,000 | 53% | 28.5% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 24.5% |
26 April 2024 | MetricsMX[6] | 1,200 | 54.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 33.1% |
17-24 April 2024 | El Financiero[7] | 1,360 | 49% | 32% | 8% | 11% | 17% |
20-21 April 2024 | TResearch[8] | 2,000 | 53.8% | 30.1% | 4.4% | 11.7% | 23.7% |
19-21 April 2024 | MEBA[9] | 1,500 | 51.2% | 24.6% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 26.6% |
14-16 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[10] | 1,800 | 49.7% | 40.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 8.9% |
14 April 2024 | C&E Mexico[11] | 600 | 59% | 33% | 8% | – | 26% |
13-14 April 2024 | TResearch[12] | 2,000 | 54.3% | 30.2% | 4% | 11.5% | 24.1% |
11-14 April 2024 | GEA-ISA[13] | 1,070 | 49% | 34% | 6% | 11% | 15% |
11-14 April 2024 | Áltica[14] | 1,000 | 51% | 39% | 5% | 5% | 12% |
8-14 April 2024 | Enkoll[15] | 2,590 | 54% | 30% | 7% | 9% | 24% |
10-13 April 2024 | Mitofsky[16] | 1,600 | 51.4% | 26.7% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 24.7% |
7 April 2024 | First presidential debate held. | ||||||
3-5 April 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[17] | 1,800 | 50.7% | 40.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 9.8% |
1 April 2024 | El Financiero[18] | 1,200 | 51% | 34% | 7% | 8% | 17% |
28-31 March 2024 | Áltica[19] | 1,000 | 50% | 38% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
25 March 2024 | MetricsMX[20] | 1,200 | 57.1% | 23.7% | 4.4% | 14.8% | 33.4% |
22-24 March 2024 | MEBA[21] | 1,500 | 53.5% | 28.9% | 6% | 11.6% | 24.6% |
14-17 March 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia[22] | 1,400 | 63% | 15% | 2% | 20% | 48% |
14-17 March 2024 | Mitofsky[23] | 1,600 | 50.5% | 28.8% | 4.8% | 15.9% | 21.7% |
12-14 March 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[24] | 1,800 | 49.4% | 41.6% | 5% | 4% | 7.8% |
11-14 March 2024 | Áltica[25] | 1,000 | 51% | 37% | 6% | 6% | 14% |
Precampaigning and intercampaigning periods[edit]
Polls taken during the precampaigning period (20 November 2023 to 18 January 2024) and the intercampaigning period (19 January to 29 February 2024).[1]
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | Others/
Undecided |
Lead | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
Máynez MC |
MC | |||||
27-28 February 2024 | MetricsMX[26] | 1,200 | 61% | 20% | 4.4% | – | 14.6% | 41% |
24-28 February 2024 | Enkoll[27] | 814 | 53% | 29% | 3% | – | 15% | 24% |
23-25 February 2024 | El Financiero[28] | 1,000 | 50% | 33% | 8% | – | 8% | 17% |
22 February 2024 | Máynez officially registers his candidacy. | |||||||
17-20 February 2024 | Mitofsky | 1,600 | 51.6% | 27.8% | 5.1% | – | 15.5% | 23.8% |
20 February 2024 | Gálvez officially registers her candidacy. | |||||||
16-19 February 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[29] | 1,800 | 50.4% | 40.9% | 3.9% | – | 4.8% | 9.5% |
15-19 February 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia | 1,400 | 67% | 15% | 2% | – | 16% | 52% |
18 February 2024 | Sheinbaum officially registers her candidacy. | |||||||
10-14 February 2024 | Áltica[30] | 1,000 | 51% | 35% | 4% | – | 10% | 16% |
3-5 February 2024 | LaEncuesta.mx[31] | 1,800 | 50.8% | 39.9% | 4.2% | – | 5.1% | 10.9% |
28-30 January 2024 | Áltica[32] | 1,000 | 50% | 35% | 5% | – | 9% | 15% |
19-22 January 2024 | Enkoll[33] | 834 | 54% | 27% | 3% | – | 16% | 27% |
12-15 January 2024 | MEBA[34] | 1,500 | 68.1% | 26.6% | 5.3% | – | 10.3% | 41.5% |
13-14 January 2024 | TResearch[35] | 2,000 | 52% | 27.1% | 5% | – | 15.3% | 25.5% |
13 January 2024 | Rubrum[36] | 1,200 | 53.5% | 28.9% | 4.5% | – | 13.1% | 24.1% |
10-14 January 2024 | De las Heras Demotecnia[37] | 1,400 | 66% | 14% | 2% | – | 18% | 52% |
10 January 2024 | Máynez becomes the sole precandidate for MC. | |||||||
9 January 2024 | INE announces that no independent candidates collected enough signatures to be eligible. | |||||||
18 December 2023 | C&E Mexico[38] | 600 | 58% | 33% | – | 9% | – | 25% |
10–15 December 2023 | Áltica[32] | 1,000 | 48% | 36% | – | 6% | 7% | 14% |
7–10 December 2023 | Mitofsky[39] | 1,600 | 50.2% | 25.3% | – | 6.3% | 18.2% | 24.9% |
2–5 December 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[40] | 1,400 | 65% | 13% | – | 6% | 16% | 52% |
5 December 2023 | C&E Mexico [41] | 600 | 55% | 36% | – | 7% | 1% | 19% |
2 December 2023 | García withdraws his candidacy. | |||||||
25–28 November 2023 | Enkoll[42] | 800 | 49% | 23% | – | 17% | 11% | 26% |
22–28 November 2023 | Reforma[43] | 1,000 | 46% | 25% | – | 14% | 15% | 21% |
24–25 November 2023 | El Financiero[44] | 1,000 | 50% | 31% | – | 7% | 12% | 19% |
20 November 2023 | Gálvez becomes the sole precandidate for Fuerza y Corazón por Mexico. |
Prior to the electoral period[edit]
Polls taken before the precampaigning period (20 November 2023), but after the winners of the internal selection processes of both major coalitions were named.
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Sample | Others/
Undecided |
Lead | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheinbaum SHH |
Gálvez FCM |
García MC |
Verástegui Independent | |||||
19 November 2023 | Sheinbaum becomes the sole precandidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia. | |||||||
17 November 2023 | Garcia becomes the sole precandidate for MC. | |||||||
10–13 November 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[45] | 1,400 | 66% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 52% |
19–28 October 2023 | El Financiero[46] | 1,620 | 46% | 28% | 8% | – | 18% | 18% |
20–24 October 2023 | Enkoll[47] | 1,008 | 50% | 27% | 15% | – | 8% | 23% |
16 October 2023 | MEBA[48] | 1,500 | 60.8% | 26.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | – | 34.1% |
8–12 October 2023 | Polls MX[49] | – | 57% | 33% | 8% | – | – | 24% |
4 October 2023 | Universal[50] | 1,200 | 50% | 20% | 7% | 4% | – | 30% |
19–25 September 2023 | Covarrubias y Asociados[51] | 1,500 | 58% | 17% | 6% | – | 13% | 41% |
25 September 2023 | De las Heras Demotecnia[52] | 1,200 | 68% | 14% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 54% |
16–21 September 2023 | GEA-ISA[53] | 1,070 | 53% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 19% |
13 September 2023 | Enkoll[54] | 1,205 | 55% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 17% | 33% |
6 September 2023 | Sheinbaum wins the internal selection process of the MORENA-PT-PVEM alliance. | |||||||
31 August 2023 | Gálvez wins the internal selection process of Frente Amplio por México. |
Possible candidates[edit]
Fieldwork date | Polling firm | Others | Lead | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sheinbaum Morena |
Ebrard Morena |
Colosio MC |
Anaya PAN |
Creel PAN |
Tellez PAN |
del Mazo PRI |
Ruiz Massieu PRI |
de la Madrid PRI |
Noroña PT | ||||
June 2023 | Mexico Elige | 35.9% | – | 8.4% | – | 24.5% | – | – | 7.9% | – | 17.3% | 2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos | 11.4% |
– | 35.9% | – | – | – | 19.5% | – | – | 16.4% | 22.1% | 1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado | 16.4% | ||
February 2023 | El Financiero | 45% | – | 9% | 18% | – | – | 14% | – | – | – | N/A | 27% |
October 2022 | El Financiero | 44% | – | 9% | 18% | – | – | 13% | – | – | – | N/A | 26% |
August 2022 | Reforma | 34% | – | 28% | 16% | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | N/A | 6% |
May 2022 | Reforma | 33% | – | 26% | 13% | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | N/A | 7% |
December 2021 | Reforma | 31% | – | 27% | 16% | – | – | 10% | – | – | – | N/A | 11% |
By alliances[edit]
Pollster | Date | Sample size | Margin of error | SHH | FCM | MC | Others/
Undecided |
Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C&E Mexico[55] | 18 December 2023 | 600 | 4% | 59% | 34% | 7% | – | 25% |
CELAG | 18 August 2023 | 2,000 | 2.19% | 45.4% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 25.9% | 27.2% |
References[edit]
- ^ a b "Elección Federal 2024". Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
- ^ TResearch (2024-05-06). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/May/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-10.
- ^ "Encuesta - México". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-06.
- ^ C&E, Redacción (2024-05-01). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 61° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-05.
- ^ S, Karla (2024-04-30). "Presidencia 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
- ^ "Sheinbaum, con sólida ventaja sobre Xóchitl en la recta final; Máynez avanza: Encuesta MetricsMx". sdpnoticias. 2024-05-02. Retrieved 2024-05-05.
- ^ "Llegan a segundo debate sin cambios: Sheinbaum, 49%; Xóchitl, con 32%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-26. Retrieved 2024-04-29.
- ^ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (21/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25.
- ^ R, Rojas (2024-05-03). "Imparable Sheinbaum con 59% de intención de voto, 2 a 1 sobre Gálvez". RegeneraciónMX (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-03.
- ^ S, Karla (2024-04-18). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ C&E, Redacción (2024-04-15). "Los Presidenciables 2024. 60° Medición". Campaigns and Elections México (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ^ TResearch (2024-04-15). "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO A LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (14/Abr/24)". TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ Mx, Polls (2024-04-26). "GEA-ISA: Se acorta la brecha entre Sheinbaum y Gálvez previo al segundo debate". Polls Mx. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-15. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-04-23.
- ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-04-24). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial, abril 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-25.
- ^ S, Karla (2024-04-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Abril 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-05-02.
- ^ "Elecciones 2024: Sheinbaum retiene ventaja de 17 puntos sobre Xóchitl tras un mes de campaña". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-16.
- ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-04-01.
- ^ "La ventaja de Sheinbaum sobre Xóchitl baja a 33 puntos porcentuales, revela encuesta MetricsMX". sdpnoticias. 2024-04-01. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
- ^ "Mendoza Blanco: Claudia (60.5%) saca 27 puntos a Xóchitl (32.7%); Máynez capta 6.8%". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 2024-04-03. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ^ Demotecnia, De las Heras (2024-03-27). "Encuesta Nacional Marzo 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-14.
- ^ Group, MITOFSKY (2024-03-25). "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la elección presidencial del 2 de junio, marzo 2024". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-15.
- ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). LaEncuesta.MX. 2024-03-15. Retrieved 2024-04-15.
- ^ "Encuesta México" (PDF). Altica. 2024-03-15.
- ^ "Encuesta MetricsMX Presidencia 2024: Claudia Sheinbaum inicia periodo de campaña con una ventaja de 41 puntos porcentuales". sdpnoticias. 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-03-04.
- ^ "Sheinbaum arranca campaña con 50% de preferencias; Xóchitl, con 33%". El Financiero (in Spanish). 2024-03-01. Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ S, Karla (2024-02-20). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ "Encuesta - México Presidencial 5to Tracking". Áltica (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-04-21.
- ^ S, Karla (2024-02-06). "Presidenciables 2024 - Febrero 2024". LaEncuesta.MX (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ^ a b "Encuesta - MX Presidencial I". Áltica (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ^ "PRESIDENCIABLES 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-01-29.
- ^ "Sheinbaum encabeza encuesta 'Meba' con 68.1% de intención de voto". MVS Noticias (in Spanish). 2024-01-24. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ^ "ASÍ VAN: RUMBO a LA PRESIDENCIA DE MÉXICO (05/Feb/24)". www.tresearch.mx. 6 February 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ^ "Preferencias presidenciales 15 de enero del 2024". RUBRUM (in Spanish). 2024-01-15. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ^ "Encuesta Nacional Enero 2024". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Mexican Spanish). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-02-12.
- ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.
- ^ "Tendencias electorales rumbo a la Presidencia de México, diciembre 2023". mitofsky.mx (in Spanish). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2023". De las Heras Demotecnia (in Spanish). 12 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 52° Medición". ceonline (in Spanish). 6 December 2023. Retrieved 13 December 2023.
- ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-12-01. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ^ "Reforma: Xóchitl disminuye en preferencias mientras Sheinbaum y Samuel, que ya no compite, aumentan". Polls Mx. 4 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ^ "Sheinbaum saca 19 puntos de ventaja a Xóchitl; baja cifra de indefinidos: Encuesta EF". El Financiero (in Spanish). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta Nacional Noviembre 2023". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 21 November 2023. Retrieved 21 November 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta: Encuesta EF: Estas son las ventajas y desventajas de Sheinbaum y Gálvez como posibles candidatas". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 31 October 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023.
- ^ "Presidenciables 2024" (PDF). Enkoll. 2024-10-30. Retrieved 2024-05-01.
- ^ "Encuesta: Se marca amplia distancia". Sin Embargo (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta: Claudia Sheinbaum y Morena sacan más de 20 puntos a Xóchitl Gálvez rumbo a 2024". Infobae (in Spanish). 15 October 2023. Retrieved 15 October 2023.
- ^ "Encuesta: Sheinbaum arrasa en preferencia electoral; saca 30 puntos a Xóchitl". El Universal (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
- ^ "Covarrubias y Asociados estima 6% para Samuel, 17% para Xóchitl y 64% para Claudia". SinEmbargo MX (in Spanish). 3 October 2023. Retrieved 3 October 2023.
- ^ "Estudio nacional de opinión pública". 25 September 2023.
- ^ "GEA-ISA: 9 de cada 10 mexicanos irá a votar en las elecciones de 2024". Polls Mx. 6 October 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
- ^ "Rumbo a la presidencia de la república" (PDF). Enkoll. 13 September 2023.
- ^ "Los Presidenciables 2024. 53° Medición". www.ceonline.com.mx. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 21 December 2023.